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China's baijiu industry continues its push to go global, with customs data from the first eight months of 2025 painting a picture of steady, albeit complex, growth. The figures reveal a market sharply divided between luxury and budget segments, raising questions about the spirit's genuine international appeal.

From January to August 2025, China's baijiu exports reached US$605.2 million, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%. The export volume also grew by 3.5% to 10.7 million litres. The average price saw a slight uptick of 1.2%, settling at US$56.5 per litre, indicating relative stability in the global market.

A closer look at the destinations, however, reveals a tale of two contrasting markets. Hong Kong solidified its position as the top market by value, absorbing 41.2% of total exports (US$249.3 million). Notably, while the volume of exports to Hong Kong grew only 1.4%, their value surged by 55.7%. This dramatic divergence is largely attributed to a spirits duty cut implemented by the Hong Kong government in late 2024, which made high-end baijiu significantly more competitive and fueled demand for premium products.

On the other end of the spectrum is South Korea. It emerged as the second-largest market by volume, importing 2.77 million litres. However, with an average price of just US$6 per litre, it represents a market dominated by inexpensive, mass-market baijiu, highlighting a strategy focused on volume over value.

Other key markets like Macau, Singapore, the United States, and Japan fall somewhere in between. They imported smaller quantities but paid substantially higher average prices, reflecting a focus on premium and gift-oriented consumption within overseas Chinese communities.

Despite the growth in exports, a significant challenge to baijiu's globalization narrative remains: re-imports. In the same period, China imported US$270.4 million worth of baijiu, a sum equivalent to 44.7% of its total export value. This circular trade flow suggests that a substantial portion of "exported" baijiu ultimately finds its way back to the Chinese market, blurring the lines between true overseas expansion and domestic circulation through alternative channels.

In conclusion, while the 2025 export data shows positive momentum for Chinese baijiu, the story behind the numbers is one of duality. The industry is simultaneously seeing success in high-value niches in specific regions and in low-cost, high-volume markets, while still grappling with a significant dependence on domestic demand, even when it is routed through foreign ports. The path to becoming a truly global spirit remains a work in progress.

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