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In the first half of 2025, China's consumer market demonstrated vitality and resilience, highlighted by five positive trends: the global expansion of new energy vehicles, a record high in inbound tourism, renewed capital investment in consumer sectors, the overseas success of cultural IPs, and the revitalization of foreign brands in China. However, the baijiu industry failed to ride this wave of growth.

While consumer confidence in China, though seeing limited improvement, remains notably higher than in mature markets like the US, Japan, and Western Europe. Consumer sectors also attracted significant capital attention, with four of the top 10 HKEX IPOs coming from this field. Beverage chain Mixue Bingcheng, for instance, ranked fifth in fundraising and surpassed McDonald's and Starbucks as the world's largest restaurant chain by store count.

Despite this broader resilience, the baijiu industry underperformed. From January to September, total retail sales of consumer goods grew 4.5% year-on-year, while the tobacco and alcohol category grew only 4%, lagging behind the overall market.

A key reason is the industry's exclusion from recent consumption stimulus policies. Subsidies have focused on green and smart home appliances, electronics, and healthy foods, areas aligned with national industrial directives. Baijiu, a traditional sector, does not fall within this subsidized scope. Furthermore, the industry faces challenges like potential tax hikes, advertising restrictions, and a renewed ban on alcohol consumption within the public sector.

The industry also suffers from a lack of innovation. Unlike the beverage sector, which is rapidly diversifying into premium, affordable, and health-focused products, baijiu remains largely stagnant. The high-end segment faces demand contraction, the mass market is highly homogenized, and the mid-price range lacks star products.

Experts suggest the future lies in category innovation and capturing niche trends. This could involve developing low-alcohol or health-oriented products, creating new consumption scenarios like camping, and leveraging Guochao (national trend) elements to build modern brand IPs, similar to the success of the game Black Myth: Wukong. By embracing innovation and cultural branding, baijiu may yet find its place in the new consumer market.

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